Model specification A formal derivation of the empirical forward-looking monetary policy rule starts with the following specification of the Fed’s target interest rates (federal funds rates) as a 1. Optimal monetary policy is active (απ > 1). 2 Worksheet: Parameters The Parameters worksheet contains the notation, definitions, and values of the parameters used in the seven simple monetary policy rules. ... of policy rules: 3-parameter rules in which the funds rate responds to the current output gap, This paper undertakes a Bayesian analysis of optimal monetary policy for the United Kingdom. This model has become the workhorse in the literature on monetary policy with the seminal contribution of Rotemberg and Woodford (1997). Each row corresponds to a different parameter. An increase in the inflation target would shift the AD to the left. rule became the predominant framework for describing monetary policy in macroeconomic models used at central banks and for thinking about how policy should be set in a systematic way. We estimate a suite of monetary policy models that include both forward and backward-looking representations as well as large and small-scale models. The rule is simple Identification Problems with Monetary Policy Rules Following recent studies that have estimated models of central bank behavior, we postulate a monetary policy rule of the form ˆı t = a ππˆ t +a yyˆ t, (1) ˆı t = ρ iˆı t−1 +(1−ρ i)ˆı t +e t, (2) e t = ρ ee t−1 +ν t,ν t ∼ iid 0,σ2 ν. It is clear that monetary policy has been emphasized as the senior partner in the search for optimal stabilization rules. The broad appeal of the Taylor rule comes from its simplicity, intuitiveness, and focus on short-term interest rates as the instrument of monetary policy. 2. The Taylor rule is one kind of targeting monetary policy used by central banks.The Taylor rule was proposed by the American economist John B. Taylor, economic adviser in the presidential administrations of Gerald Ford and George H. W. Bush, in 1992 as a central bank technique to stabilize economic activity by setting an interest rate.. 3. knot with his simple but persuasive equation: a compromise between academic complexity and policy-influencing simplicity. conditions in the estimation of the monetary policy rule is an additional important issue. In particular, there is now a vast literature on desirable simple rules for the conduct of monetary policy. (3) Given that in the baseline model consumption represents the only source of demand in the economy, consumption demand equals aggregate demand. The optimal fiscal-policy stance is passive. Definitions and notation for the parameters are found in column A, cells A3:A9, while the corresponding values assigned to each parameter are Model specification and a two-step MLE procedure 2.1. The optimized simple monetary and fiscal rules attain virtually the same The term r f represents the central banks estimate of the equilibrium real rate of interest. 4. We find an optimal simple Taylor-type rule that accounts for both model and parameter uncertainty. 2. Interest-rate feedback rules that respond to output can be significantly harmful. But the precise magnitude of απ plays a minor role for welfare. If the policy parameter bar b increases, the AD curve becomes steeper. In the simple monetary policy rule, a large m means that the central bank is aggressive fighting inflation. 2. This paper derives parameter restrictions for simple monetary policy rules which deliver a fully determinate equilibrium in an otherwise standard monetary general equilibrium model. Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty Andrew Levin, Volker Wieland, and John C. Williams ... that these rules represent solutions to the specified constrained optimization problem. Section IV describes the influence of the Taylor rule on the Federal Reserve’s conduct of monetary policy.